Every spring, an Austin HVAC operator I’ve worked with for years sends me the same email: “Cranking up the Google Ads budget for July — let’s get aggressive.”
Every September, I send him the same data back: July’s ROAS was the worst month of his year, despite being his highest-revenue month. He pays more per click, picks up worse-quality leads, competes against deeper-pocketed franchises, and ends up with cost-per-booked-job 60% higher than May or October.
The intuition that you should spend more during peak demand is right at the trade level. Implemented as flat-multiplier increases on Google Ads during peak season, it’s expensive and ineffective. The right model is a curve, not a step function — and the bottom of the curve isn’t where most operators think.
Here’s how we actually allocate Texas HVAC ad budgets across the year.
Why CPCs rise faster than demand in July
Google Ads pricing is auction-based, and the HVAC summer auction in Texas is one of the most aggressive in any service vertical nationally.
The numbers we see across our accounts:
- April CPC for “AC repair Austin”: $7-$12
- June CPC same query: $14-$22
- July CPC same query: $24-$38
- August CPC same query: $19-$28
- September CPC same query: $9-$14
July CPC runs roughly 3.3× the April rate — while search volume only doubles in the same window. The auction prices the demand surge faster than the demand actually rises.
That’s a 3-4× CPC increase from April to July. Industry benchmarks confirm this — PPC Chief’s HVAC CPC tracker shows national HVAC CPCs spike most steeply during cooling-emergency season.
What demand does in the same window: search volume for “AC repair Austin” roughly doubles from April to July. Demand 2×. CPC 3-4×.
You’re paying more, faster, than the demand grew. ROAS compresses unless you change the campaign structure — and most operators don’t change anything except the budget number.
What “doubling July” actually buys you
A typical Austin HVAC operator running $5k/month in Google Ads year-round, who decides to double to $10k in July:
| June ($5k spend) | July ($10k spend, naive) | July (smart allocation) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg CPC | $16 | $30 | $26 |
| Clicks | 312 | 333 | 384 |
| Conversion rate | 9% | 7% | 11% |
| Conversions | 28 | 23 | 42 |
| Cost per conversion | $179 | $435 | $238 |
| Booked job rate | 65% | 55% | 70% |
| Booked jobs | 18 | 13 | 29 |
| Cost per booked job | $278 | $769 | $345 |
The naive July: more spend, fewer booked jobs. The smart July: same doubled budget, 60% more booked jobs.
The difference is allocation, not aggression.
The actual seasonal curve
Here’s the relative ad-spend allocation we run on a Texas HVAC operator with a $60k annual ad budget. Indexed to monthly average = 1.0:
| Month | Spend index | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | 0.7 | Heating-only demand, low intent |
| Feb | 0.9 | Pre-season tune-up campaigns |
| Mar | 1.1 | Pre-season tune-up + first heat days |
| Apr | 1.4 | Tune-up season peak — best ROAS of the year |
| May | 1.5 | Tune-up tail + early emergency demand |
| Jun | 1.3 | Demand high but auction expensive |
| Jul | 1.0 | Auction overpriced — hold spend, don’t increase |
| Aug | 1.1 | Auction softens late August |
| Sep | 0.9 | Demand normalizing |
| Oct | 1.0 | Heating tune-up campaigns kick in |
| Nov | 0.8 | Pre-holiday demand dip |
| Dec | 0.3 | Lowest ROAS month — minimal spend |
Two highlighted months: May (the non-obvious peak — best ROAS of the year) and July (the non-obvious valley — auction overpriced, hold spend flat instead of doubling). The full-year curve, not the headline month, decides annual ROAS.
The non-obvious peak: April-May. Best ROAS of the year because demand is rising, intent is high (homeowners scheduling proactive tune-ups), and auction pricing hasn’t caught up yet.
The non-obvious valley: July. Even though demand peaks, the auction prices it out of efficiency. The right move is to hold steady, not increase. Let the deeper-pocketed franchises burn cash chasing emergency clicks at $35 CPC; you cherry-pick the best terms at calmer pricing.
What actually moves the needle in July
If you can’t outspend the franchises in July, what should you do?
1. Tighten geo-targeting hard
In April, you can afford broad metro-Austin targeting. In July, you can’t. Narrow to your green-core zips (the ones where you rank in the map pack organically anyway, identified via the zip-code rankings playbook). You’re paying for clicks you’d already win — but at least you’re not paying $35/click for clicks you’d lose to franchises in the yellow band.
2. Shift spend to LSAs and Performance Max
Local Service Ads pay-per-lead, not pay-per-click. In a $35 CPC environment, paying $80 per validated phone lead is dramatically more efficient than paying $35 × 8 clicks for one converted lead. Same logic for Performance Max — the algorithm is better at finding profitable inventory in volatile auctions than manual bidding.
3. Run an emergency-specific campaign with strict negative keywords
Keep one campaign dedicated to true emergency searches — “AC not cooling,” “AC stopped working,” “AC repair tonight.” Strip everything else out with negatives. These convert at 2-3× the rate of generic “AC repair” terms and warrant the high CPCs.
4. Use creative differentiators
In July, every HVAC ad in Austin says “Same-day service. Licensed. 5-star.” Yours needs to say something different. “On-call tech in 18 minutes or the visit is free.” “0% financing on full systems through Synchrony.” The clicks don’t get cheaper — they convert better.
5. Maximize organic instead
July is when you reap what you planted in March-May. If your organic GBP, map pack, and city pages are in shape, you don’t need to muscle through July with paid spend. The customers find you. We covered the full local-SEO playbook in the Austin map pack guide.
The annual reset
The single highest-leverage budget meeting we run with HVAC clients is the December planning session. Three decisions, in order:
- What’s the realistic annual ad budget? Locked. Not “we’ll spend more if it’s working” — locked.
- How is it allocated by the curve above? Not flat. Heavy April-May, light December.
- What’s the trigger to go off-curve? Defined in advance. “If May ROAS exceeds 5x, increase June by 20%.” Not in the moment, in panic.
This is boring discipline. It’s also the difference between a $60k ad budget that earns $300k in pipeline and one that earns $190k.
The math
A Texas HVAC operator running $60k/year flat-allocated typically earns $220k-$260k in attributable pipeline. The same operator on a curve-allocated budget earns $300k-$340k — same total spend, 30-40% more pipeline.
The structural lift, annualized: $80k-$100k in incremental booked revenue, with no additional team, trucks, or marketing budget.
If you want us to model your specific seasonal curve based on your account history, book a 30-minute call. We’ll send a 12-month allocation plan whether or not you work with us.
Pairs well with: Why your Austin HVAC site ranks #4 and our Google Ads service.