--- title: "Texas HVAC summer ad-spend curve: why doubling July loses money" description: Most Austin HVAC operators double their Google Ads budget in July. CPCs rise faster than demand and ROAS collapses. Here's the curve we run instead. url: "https://siite.co/articles/texas-hvac-summer-ad-spend-curve" type: static generatedAt: "2026-08-12T09:25:36.985Z" --- HVAC # Texas HVAC summer ad-spend curve: why doubling July loses money Most Austin HVAC operators double their Google Ads budget in July. CPCs rise faster than demand and ROAS collapses. Here's the curve we run instead. [![Leonardo Miodrag](/images/team/leonardo-miodrag.jpg) By Leonardo Miodrag](/articles/author/leonardo-miodrag/) February 27, 2026 9 min read ## Contents Every spring, an Austin HVAC operator I’ve worked with for years sends me the same email: *“Cranking up the Google Ads budget for July — let’s get aggressive.”* Every September, I send him the same data back: July’s ROAS was the worst month of his year, despite being his highest-revenue month. He pays more per click, picks up worse-quality leads, competes against deeper-pocketed franchises, and ends up with cost-per-booked-job 60% higher than May or October. The intuition that you should spend more during peak demand is right at the trade level. Implemented as *flat-multiplier increases on Google Ads* during peak season, it’s expensive and ineffective. The right model is a curve, not a step function — and the bottom of the curve isn’t where most operators think. Here’s how we actually allocate Texas HVAC ad budgets across the year. ## Why CPCs rise faster than demand in July Google Ads pricing is auction-based, and the HVAC summer auction in Texas is one of the most aggressive in any service vertical nationally. The numbers we see across our accounts: - **April CPC for “AC repair Austin”**: $7-$12 - **June CPC same query**: $14-$22 - **July CPC same query**: $24-$38 - **August CPC same query**: $19-$28 - **September CPC same query**: $9-$14 *Average CPC for 'AC repair Austin' by month (2025-2026 Siite account data, midpoint of observed range)* July CPC runs roughly 3.3× the April rate — while search volume only doubles in the same window. The auction prices the demand surge faster than the demand actually rises. That’s a 3-4× CPC increase from April to July. Industry benchmarks confirm this — [PPC Chief’s HVAC CPC tracker](https://ppcchief.com/google-ads-cost/hvac) shows national HVAC CPCs spike most steeply during cooling-emergency season. What demand does in the same window: search volume for “AC repair Austin” roughly doubles from April to July. Demand 2×. CPC 3-4×. You’re paying more, faster, than the demand grew. ROAS compresses unless you change the campaign structure — and most operators don’t change anything except the budget number. ## What “doubling July” actually buys you A typical Austin HVAC operator running $5k/month in Google Ads year-round, who decides to double to $10k in July: | | June ($5k spend) | July ($10k spend, naive) | July (smart allocation) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Avg CPC | $16 | $30 | $26 | | Clicks | 312 | 333 | 384 | | Conversion rate | 9% | 7% | 11% | | Conversions | 28 | 23 | 42 | | Cost per conversion | $179 | $435 | $238 | | Booked job rate | 65% | 55% | 70% | | Booked jobs | 18 | 13 | 29 | | Cost per booked job | $278 | $769 | $345 | The naive July: more spend, *fewer* booked jobs. The smart July: same doubled budget, 60% more booked jobs. The difference is allocation, not aggression. ## The actual seasonal curve Here’s the relative ad-spend allocation we run on a Texas HVAC operator with a $60k annual ad budget. Indexed to monthly average = 1.0: | Month | Spend index | Reasoning | | --- | --- | --- | | Jan | 0.7 | Heating-only demand, low intent | | Feb | 0.9 | Pre-season tune-up campaigns | | Mar | 1.1 | Pre-season tune-up + first heat days | | Apr | 1.4 | Tune-up season peak — best ROAS of the year | | May | 1.5 | Tune-up tail + early emergency demand | | Jun | 1.3 | Demand high but auction expensive | | Jul | 1.0 | Auction overpriced — hold spend, don’t increase | | Aug | 1.1 | Auction softens late August | | Sep | 0.9 | Demand normalizing | | Oct | 1.0 | Heating tune-up campaigns kick in | | Nov | 0.8 | Pre-holiday demand dip | | Dec | 0.3 | Lowest ROAS month — minimal spend | *Recommended monthly ad-spend allocation for a Texas HVAC operator (indexed to monthly average = 1.0)* Two highlighted months: May (the non-obvious peak — best ROAS of the year) and July (the non-obvious valley — auction overpriced, hold spend flat instead of doubling). The full-year curve, not the headline month, decides annual ROAS. The non-obvious peak: April-May. Best ROAS of the year because demand is rising, intent is high (homeowners scheduling proactive tune-ups), and auction pricing hasn’t caught up yet. The non-obvious valley: July. Even though demand peaks, the auction prices it out of efficiency. The right move is to *hold steady*, not increase. Let the deeper-pocketed franchises burn cash chasing emergency clicks at $35 CPC; you cherry-pick the best terms at calmer pricing. ## What actually moves the needle in July If you can’t outspend the franchises in July, what should you do? ### 1. Tighten geo-targeting hard In April, you can afford broad metro-Austin targeting. In July, you can’t. Narrow to your green-core zips (the ones where you rank in the map pack organically anyway, identified via the [zip-code rankings playbook](/articles/zip-code-map-rankings-multi-area-service/)). You’re paying for clicks you’d already win — but at least you’re not paying $35/click for clicks you’d lose to franchises in the yellow band. ### 2. Shift spend to LSAs and Performance Max Local Service Ads pay-per-lead, not pay-per-click. In a $35 CPC environment, paying $80 per validated phone lead is dramatically more efficient than paying $35 × 8 clicks for one converted lead. Same logic for Performance Max — the algorithm is better at finding profitable inventory in volatile auctions than manual bidding. ### 3. Run an emergency-specific campaign with strict negative keywords Keep one campaign dedicated to true emergency searches — *“AC not cooling,” “AC stopped working,” “AC repair tonight.”* Strip everything else out with negatives. These convert at 2-3× the rate of generic *“AC repair”* terms and warrant the high CPCs. ### 4. Use creative differentiators In July, every HVAC ad in Austin says *“Same-day service. Licensed. 5-star.”* Yours needs to say something different. *“On-call tech in 18 minutes or the visit is free.” “0% financing on full systems through Synchrony.”* The clicks don’t get cheaper — they convert better. ### 5. Maximize organic instead July is when you reap what you planted in March-May. If your organic GBP, map pack, and city pages are in shape, you don’t need to muscle through July with paid spend. The customers find you. We covered the full local-SEO playbook in [the Austin map pack guide](/articles/austin-map-pack-playbook-90-days/). ## The annual reset The single highest-leverage budget meeting we run with HVAC clients is the December planning session. Three decisions, in order: 1. **What’s the realistic annual ad budget?** Locked. Not “we’ll spend more if it’s working” — locked. 1. **How is it allocated by the curve above?** Not flat. Heavy April-May, light December. 1. **What’s the trigger to go off-curve?** Defined in advance. *“If May ROAS exceeds 5x, increase June by 20%.”* Not in the moment, in panic. This is boring discipline. It’s also the difference between a $60k ad budget that earns $300k in pipeline and one that earns $190k. ## The math A Texas HVAC operator running $60k/year flat-allocated typically earns $220k-$260k in attributable pipeline. The same operator on a curve-allocated budget earns $300k-$340k — same total spend, 30-40% more pipeline. The structural lift, annualized: $80k-$100k in incremental booked revenue, with no additional team, trucks, or marketing budget. If you want us to model your specific seasonal curve based on your account history, [book a 30-minute call](/contact/). We’ll send a 12-month allocation plan whether or not you work with us. Pairs well with: [Why your Austin HVAC site ranks #4](/articles/austin-hvac-rank-4-h1-not-the-fix/) and [our Google Ads service](/services/google-ads/).